Friday, March 7, 2014

The Bitch is Back....

Overheard  this over at Darwinian's Blog and I had to share:

From a recent exchange with Jeffrey Brown aka Westexas
Circa 2008, I was contacted by a research scientist at Sandia Labs. They had an informal Peak Oil working group, and he said that they were stunned when they worked through the implications of “Net Export Math.” A few months later, I was invited to make a presentation on net exports at Sandia (I had to pass a security background check to get on to the facility).

In any case, I made my presentation at Sandia, which was shown via video link to other national labs (Los Alamos, etc.), to what has to be my most intimidating audience ever. There was no real argument over the model, since they very quickly understood the simple math. I understand that a contingent of scientists from Sandia subsequently approached senior DOE/EIA executives about their concerns about net exports, and the scientists were told that the higher ups didn’t want to hear it.

Fast forward to late 2012. I was part of an ASPO-USA delegation that briefed senior EIA and DOE personnel in Washington D.C. (including the EIA administrator) on Peak Oil and Peak Exports (at least they were willing to listen). I made a brief presentation on net exports, in the context of increasing demand from developing countries, and the first question I asked them was if anyone at the EIA was modeling future Global Net Exports of oil, assuming a continuing increase in consumption in net oil exporting countries. The answer was “No.”

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